The euro/dollar was trading by the LB on Thursday, waiting for the key NFP report to come out. The US stats published yesterday offered an insignificant amount of support of the dollar.

Alpari: Technical Analysis

Euro Consolidating as it Waits for NFP Report

Yesterday’s Trading:
The euro/dollar was trading by the LB on Thursday, waiting for the key NFP report to come out. The US stats published yesterday offered an insignificant amount of support of the dollar.
According to the report, the number of initial unemployment benefit applications for the week ending 1st August increased by 3,000 to 270,000 (forecasted: 273,000, previous: 267,000).


Main news of the day:

  • At 09:00 EET, Germany’s June manufacturing volume and July balance of trade is out;
  • At 09:30 EET, the Bank of Japan is holding a press conference;
  • At 11:30 EET, UK June balance of trade figures are being published;
  • At 15:30 EET, the US is publishing its unemployment level, its NFP and July figures for number of employed;
  • At 15:30 EET, Canada is giving an indication of the number of construction permits issued in June, as well as July numbers for changes for number of employed and its unemployment level;
  • At 17:00 EET, Canada is releasing its July manager’s business activity index from Ivey.


Market Expectations:
Market participants are waiting for US labor market data to come out. They are counting on the data shedding light on the situation concerning US interest rates and they are hoping that the data will indicate which way the dollar is going to go for the month. Canadian stats are also out with the NFP, so volatility at 15:30 EET will be high. It will be similar stuff for the pound after the Bank of England has convened.


Technical Analysis:

  • Intraday target: maximum: n/a, minimum: n/a, close: n/a;
  • Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 130 points (4 figures).


Hourly
My forecast runs up to 15:30 EET. I’ve no idea how the NFP is going to come out and I’m not going to bother guessing. Although I will say one thing, it’s worth having a look at the NFP data. The ADP index is Wednesday’s driver and the NFP is Friday’s. Between them there is no correlation.

EURUSD

 

Daily
The sellers couldn’t strengthen below the dotted line (drawn along the close price). Yesterday I wrote that if the euro closes above it, I expect a return of the rate to 1.0930. The Asian maximum is fixed at 1.0933. The current price model has upped the risk for a return to 1.1057. Any eurobull success will depend on the NFP data. Now to the Weekly.

EURUSD

 

Weekly
The euro/dollar closed with a growth on Wednesday. This isn’t an indicator for the weekly graph, but it means that there are risks the candle will close with a low tail. This is bad news for sellers.

EURUSD

 

Vladislav Antonov, Alpari Analyst