Along G20 meeting in Sydney that ended yesterday, forex market moves smoothly withouth any substantial surprises except some skirmishes between some brokers with their regulators. Price movements proceeded as usual with the chart commonly showed rugged terrains. They were preparing the ground for an interesting trading this week.

Along G20 meeting in Sydney that ended yesterday, forex market moves smoothly withouth any substantial surprises except some skirmishes between some brokers with their regulators. Price movements proceeded as usual with the chart commonly showed rugged terrains. They were preparing the ground for an interesting trading this week.
forexEmerging Market Concerns
One of last week's highlights resurgence of emerging countries' currencies, most notably Brazil and Indonesia. At a glance, it seems emerging markets have survived the latest tapering backlash. Even foreign funds have trickled back to those markets. However, it was just temporary, as the main concern haven't been estinguished yet. Yesterday (23/2), Bloomberg mentioned the phenomenon of growth reversal, that is strengthening growth in developed countries and slowdown in China, India, Brazil, and friends; a reversal from post-2008 trend. Extended tapering exarcebates this concern. Even Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei and  Indian Central Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan criticized US monetary policy on this ground.

Bloomberg quoted the final G-20 statement, a commitment that central banks would be 'mindful of impacts' of monetary policy settings. The statement can be interpreted as central banks' willingness to consider global impact of their policies toward emerging countries. Apparently the new Fed Chairman Janet Yellen have charmed emerging countries' officials. Nevertheless, so far there is no signal from the Fed that they will change direction yet.

The Fed Speeches
On of the main focus of the week for USD is speeches from various FOMC members on US economy and the direction of Fed policy. At least five FOMC members will stand on stage in various events, including Fisher and Yellen. Frankly, we doubt very much that The Fed will seriously ponder the impact of their monetary policy toward emerging countries', because several members have said that US economy is still their main priority. That's why, Yellen's speech on Thursday is estimated to have a relatively big impact. People are seeking clues to decipher the tapering puzzles.
guideAnother fundamental focus of USD are economic reports of CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Durable Goods Order, Initial Jobless Claims, and GDP. Consumer confidence index is of considerable concern for consumer-driven economy like the US. It is based on the assumption that high consumer confidence lead to high consumption which in turn, will drive domestic productivity and economic growth. However, the upcoming CB Consumer Growth is predicted to slid from 80.7 to 80.3. It does not signify changes, but index under 100 clearly indicate consumers' pessimistic outlook.  

Greenback continue to hike in the market last week, but as long as speculation on tapering go on and the US releases unsatisfactory economic reports, then the direction of USD movement remains unpredictable and in danger of slipping.

Under The Threat Of Bearish
On the other hand, GBP suffered notable downturn since the start of last week, although it is still in yearly highs. There are some omens that bearish trend will continue on this week, but the focus is in the release of preliminary UK GDP report on Wednesday. GDP growth, both mtm and yoy are predicted to remain fixed on 0.7 and 2.8 respectively. Anything lower will push bear, while a number above estimates will sustain GBP until BoE Governor Mark Carney's speech in Friday.
focusEUR/USD precipitous trading last week will be continued on the week ahead. Movements will be influenced by various mid-to high impact publications from German, France, Spain, and Italy, as well as Eurozone CPI and unemployment reports. Apart from the many supporting fundamentals, EUR/USD will stay fluctuative, particularly because there is no clear directive from ECB yet.

Two major currencies with the bleakest outlook are Aussie and Kiwi, The two are pressured in the market due to concerns on the weight of slowdown in China. What's more, there is no high-impact news scheduled from the their country of origins. There are just a speech from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens on Wednesday and Trade Balance Report from New Zealands in the next day scheduled in the fundamental calendar.

Related Articles: